For years, the Phoenix Metro Area housing market was defined by lightning-fast sales, bidding wars, and homes disappearing off the market in days. Sellers held the cards, and buyers were often racing to be the first to bid. But the tide is turning. The market is moving toward a more balanced state—neither runaway seller’s market nor deep buyer’s market. For both buyers and sellers, that shift matters. As your trusted real estate advisor, Hoffer Group is here to help you understand what’s changed, why it’s happening, and how you should position yourself now.
Market Data: What’s Changing
Slower Price Growth
Although home prices in Phoenix remain elevated compared to historical levels, the pace of growth has moderated. According to recent data from Redfin, the median sale price in September 2025 was about $460,000, up only around 2.2% compared to a year ago. Redfin
This signals a cooling off of the frantic price rises that many sellers experienced in 2020–22.
Inventory Is Increasing
At the same time, inventory is moving upward. For example: the October 2025 monthly report for Phoenix reported around 21,284 active listings to start the month—up about 22% from October 2024. Metro Phoenix Homes
More homes for sale means buyers have more options, and the seller-dominated market begins to loosen.
Homes Are Staying on the Market Longer
Another sign of shifting dynamics: homes aren’t selling in 2–3 days any more. In the Phoenix market, average days on market (DOM) figures recently are around 63–64 days (compared to much shorter times in the height of the seller’s market). Redfin+1
Longer times on market give more negotiation room—and signal that sellers need to be more deliberate in strategy.
Other Indicators of Balance
- List versus sale price: In some reports, sellers accepted significantly below list in recent months. Metro Phoenix Homes
- Months of inventory/absorption rate: Some data show the absorption rate moving away from ultra-tight seller market levels. Phoenix MLS Search.com
Taken together, these factors suggest we’re moving toward a more “normal” market environment—where buyers regain some leverage and sellers must adapt.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’re a buyer in the Phoenix area, the shift toward balance brings good news:
- More leverage in negotiation. With more inventory and longer days on market, you’re less pressured to waive contingencies or overbid just to be in the game.
- Better selection and time to decide. More homes on the market mean you can be more selective—you might find a home you love without feeling forced into immediate action.
- Potential for more concessions. Sellers may be more willing to offer incentives (closing cost help, repairs, flexible timing) than in the ultra-tight market of recent years.
- Important strategy tip: Work with a buyer’s agent who tracks local trends and doesn’t assume you must “pay whatever it takes.” At Hoffer Group, we help you structure offers that reflect market reality—so you don’t overpay for peace of mind.
What This Means for Sellers
If you’re a seller, the changing market means you’ll want to adopt a more strategic approach than just listing and waiting for a bidding war.
- Price competitively from the start. With inventory higher and buyers less desperate, overpriced homes will sit longer. A home that lingers may raise red flags and lose momentum.
- Focus on condition and presentation. With more choices for buyers, how your home looks, functions, and shows matters more. Staging, good photography, and decluttering pay off.
- Work with an agent who understands shifting conditions. At Hoffer Group, we monitor how comparable homes are selling now—not how they sold two years ago.
- Timing and marketing matter. While listing sooner may still make sense, the window for “list and immediate bidding war” is narrower. So we’ll plan your marketing, pricing, and launch timing carefully.
- Be ready for negotiation. Even in a good location, expect buyers to ask for inspections, repairs, or concessions. Building that into your pricing strategy upfront avoids unpleasant surprises later.
Why the Shift Is Happening
Several forces have converged to bring this transition:
- Higher mortgage interest rates compared to the ultra-low levels of 2020–21 have reduced buyer purchasing power, slowing the pace of sales.
- Homeowners who locked in very low rates may be reluctant to move (and give up that rate), limiting supply until they feel comfortable.
- Economic uncertainty is making some buyers more cautious, adding to the slower pace.
- Supply is gradually catching up with demand, especially as new listings and build-to-rent homes add to options.
In short: the “panic seller’s market” of recent years is giving way to a more balanced environment where both sides of the transaction have to be thoughtful.
In Conclusion
The Phoenix market is no longer a runaway seller’s race—and that’s a good thing for many. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding where we are now and how to act is key to getting the outcome you want.
For buyers: take advantage of your improved position. For sellers: adapt your strategy. And for both: working with a partner who knows the local dynamics is critical.
Ready to take the next step?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix area, contact Hoffer Group today for a free consultation. We’ll give you a personalized market snapshot, show you where the opportunities are, and craft a strategy that fits your goals. Whether you’re looking for your next home or prepping your current one for sale—we’re here to guide you through the changing market.
