The Phoenix Q4 Real Estate Market Outlook shows a cooler market than we’ve seen in recent years, but not a weak one. Prices have leveled off, inventory is rising, and buyers finally have more choices. Still, some parts of the Valley remain competitive, and certain price points continue to move quickly.
This simplified breakdown from Hoffer Group explains what buyers and sellers should expect as we enter 2026.
Seasonal Cooling vs. Phoenix’s Year-Round Demand
Every year, the market slows down in Q4. Holidays, travel, and weather all play a part. Phoenix is no exception. Homes are now taking around 64–71 days to sell on average, which reflects this seasonal slowdown.
However, Phoenix continues to attract new residents. People move here for jobs, lower taxes, warm weather, and more affordable prices compared with large coastal cities. Because of this steady demand, prices have not dropped sharply. Instead, they remain mostly flat, sitting around $450,000–$470,000.
New home builders are also helping support demand by offering incentives such as rate buydowns and closing cost credits. These offers make new construction more appealing, especially for buyers who are sensitive to monthly payments.
Interest Rates: What They Mean for Phoenix Buyers and Sellers
Mortgage rates are starting to ease. Many forecasts expect rates to average around 6% in 2026. This is not extremely low, but it is far better than the high-rate environment of the last couple of years.
For buyers:
- Monthly payments may be more manageable.
- A slight drop in rates will bring more homes within reach.
- There may be a chance to refinance later if rates fall again.
For sellers:
- More buyers may come back into the market.
- Well-priced homes will see stronger showing activity.
- You may not need to offer as many concessions to close a deal.
Interest rates will continue to shape the Phoenix Real Estate Trends for Buyers and Sellers, especially in the early part of 2026.
Inventory Expectations After the Fall Listing Surge
Phoenix usually sees more listings in the fall, and 2025 followed that pattern. Inventory rose sharply and is now much higher than it was during the fast-paced pandemic years. The market currently sits around 3 months of supply, which is close to a balanced market.
Here’s what typically happens next:
- Winter: Listings slow down. Sellers who remain on the market may adjust prices or offer credits.
- Early spring: Fresh listings arrive. Buyers who waited for the holidays to pass re-enter the market.
These shifts suggest Phoenix will remain steady heading into 2026—neither strongly favoring buyers nor sellers overall.
Which Areas and Price Points Are Still Competitive?
Even with more inventory, several parts of the Valley continue to move quickly. These include:
- Scottsdale
- Paradise Valley
- Fountain Hills
- Chandler
- Gilbert
- Avondale
- Anthem
In these areas, attractively priced homes can still receive multiple offers.
Price point trends:
- Under $450,000: Still competitive due to strong demand.
- $450,000–$800,000: More balanced; buyers often negotiate.
- Luxury: Longer days on market, but strong interest in prime neighborhoods.
These patterns are central to the Phoenix Housing Market Forecast 2026 and will likely continue through the first half of next year.
Hoffer Group: Your Partner in the Phoenix Market
Whether you’re buying or selling in 2026, timing and strategy matter.
Hoffer Group can help you:
- Understand neighborhood-level trends
- Price correctly for today’s market
- Negotiate confidently
- Prepare for interest-rate changes
📞 Contact Hoffer Group for a simple, data-backed market consultation.
